ShareSquare

Will 2011 be the year QR codes explode in the USA?

Probably.

Ok, we at ShareSquare have a vested interest, but I like to think that we’ve taken a sober look at the factors that need to come together for this to happen.  In places like Japan (where the QR code was invented) you’ll find them everywhere, from gravestones to the wrapper on your McDonald’s Big Mac.  What about ‘Merica?

Factor #1 - Handset Capabilities

You shouldn’t be surprised that this is the biggest determinant.  People need to have phones that are actually able to scan these things.  In Japan, more than 95% can.

If you’re reading this, you probably bought the iPhone or G1 the week it came out, and you’re intentionally repressing the memory that until pretty recently the Motorola RAZR was the most popular phone in America.  As of this moment, the split between smartphones and feature phones in the U.S. is just about 50/50.  However, because almost all new phone shipments are of the smartphone variety, the trendline above hits an elbow in 2011.

There’s one other big difference between the market penetration of barcode scanning functionality in Japan and as it’s projected to happen in the United States.  In Japan it was top-down.  One wireless carrier (NTT Docomo) basically controlled the market, so they up and decided one day that all their phones would support barcode scanning.  And so they did.  In the U.S. it’s looking to be bottom-up.  No domestic carrier could have unilaterally pushed this feature onto a critical mass of handsets, even if they wanted to.  But now that mobile operating systems are the new gatekeepers of handset functionality, there are a plurality of barcode scanning apps willingly being downloaded by the consumer.  Hooray democracy!

Factor #2 - De-fragmentation of 2D Barcode Standards

The term “QR code” is a bit like the term “Jeep”, in that people often mistakenly use the former to refer to all types of 2D barcodes much like they use the latter to refer to all types of SUV.

As it pertains to the usage that we care about (average consumers whipping out their phones to scan and get something in return) it’s a good sign that the open-standard properly known as the QR code appears to be winning out, mostly because the aforementioned plurality of barcode scanning apps all support it.

Other 2D barcodes (Datamatrix, Semacode, Aztec, etc) will probably persist in specialized areas like logistics and shipping, but for consumer scanning the QR code proper needs to achieve hegemony.  Fortunately, this appears to be happening quickly as even stalwarts like ScanLife (EZcode) are abandoning their propriety formats.

A few proprietary code formats like JagTag and Microsoft Tag are still stubbornly clinging on, though no one is surprised by Microsoft’s willingness to beat a dead horse.  And I’ll be thrilled when JagTag folds, since I blush every time I say it out loud.

I believe that combining de-fragmentation with a majority of compatible handsets will result in conditions similar to the domestic proliferation of SMS text messaging in the early 2000s.  Even though most phones were technically capable, there was a period when texting across carriers (like from a Sprint phone to an AT&T phone) was impossible.  When these walls came down SMS use exploded.

Factor #3 - The Social Tipping Point

This is basically when your mom recognizes what a QR code is, and what she’s supposed to do with it.

The above Google Trends chart highlights the growing mainstream interest in QR codes, but for the social tipping point to occur, Factors #1 and #2 need to coincide with a consistent delivery of value.

Roger over at 2D Barcode Strategy has a good post about this, but in a nutshell, it’s making sure that whenever you scan a QR code, the content you get doesn’t suck (or doesn’t FAIL completely).  This is basically the entire reason we created ShareSquare, along with a growing list of best practices: so that whenever you match a QR code with a good call-to-action the user experience is delightful.

Overall Prediction

It’s looking promising, so if you fancy yourself an innovator, you should get cracking with QR codes and ShareSquare starting right meow.  Also, I’ll be speaking on this topic at the Where 2.0 conference in Santa Clara, April 11-13, so feel free to come and personally rub it into my face if I end up being wrong.